Simulation on Public Policy

Chemistry AS403 – Simulation

Washington, D.C.

Spring, 2019. The one bright spot in the usual atmosphere of political infighting and intrigue is public contentment with the austere homeland security policies that finally succeeded in interdicting illegal immigration across the nation’s 2000-mile southern border beginning in 2013. This success was achieved through the combined use of multiple electrified fences backed by solid concrete walls, with regular defoliation of the intervening no-man’s-land between the barriers using biodegradable herbicides.

In 2014, the United States had suffered a severe bout of inflation due to the rise in wages associated with the loss of several million “guest” workers, while Mexico underwent a major recession due to many factory closures stemming from the loss of major American markets. Mexico responded by suspending diplomatic relations with the United States. Relations were restored in 2017 thanks to the efforts of the newly elected Administration, which moved rapidly to restore free trade (but not immigration). Mexican factories in border towns were reopened, and the adjacent border became the main route for transporting Mexican goods to the eager American consumer. The entire free trade zone along the Texas – Mexican border developed almost overnight into an economic powerhouse to rival the success of South Korea and Taiwan. Communities on both sides of the border are benefiting by the rapid increase in employment, income levels, and public services. The flagship accomplishments touted by governmental officials in both nations are ample schools and libraries, low-cost medical clinics, and careful environmental stewardship.

Despite the promise, a concern for the region’s population is the rising number of birth defects in infants and cancers in people of all ages. The problem has been smoldering for nearly three decades, but in the last five years the incidence has accelerated rapidly. The local economies are in danger of collapse as potential workers avoid relocation to the region while the incumbent population seeks to leave.

You are a member of a bilateral public policy commission tasked with identifying likely cause of the epidemic and pinpointing means by which the threat may be ended. Develop one or more hypotheses regarding the cause of the problem. Design the necessary tests to verify or negate the hypotheses, keeping in mind both scientific considerations and ancillary concerns (e.g., cost and international relations). Prepare a brief for delivery to the President outlining your hypotheses, proposed experiments (both initial and follow-up), and likely recommendations for dealing with the scenario.